The devastating ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has now entered its fifth year, with no clear indication of any sort of peace settlement or agreement being reached. On the contrary, both Russia and Ukraine, of which the latter is being supported by the European Union, are preparing for even bigger offensives and strikes against each other. What is especially alarming now is that President Putin has made it abundantly clear that any European states supporting Ukraine through intelligence, equipment, and monetary funding, will be legitimate targets for missile attacks in the eyes of the Kremlin. What started as a relatively isolated conflict with the annexation of Crimea in February 2014, followed by the full-scale invasion of Ukraine just eight years later, has quickly begun spilling onto the rest of the continent. This clear and unprecedented escalation tactic has forced the EU to radically reshape its defense and security architecture, amid uncertainty not just from Moscow but also from Washington. It has become clear that since President Trump took office in 2025, the United States can no longer be looked at as a reliable ally to deter Russian military aggression. As a result, this article aims to evaluate how Europe is restructuring its defense capabilities and doctrines, in a world where it has become clear that it must fend for itself amid great uncertainty from East and West.
First, it is fundamental to examine how EU support for the war effort in Ukraine has evolved since the invasion in February 2022, and how it has dramatically increased since President Trump began his second term in office. Initially, EU support for Ukrainian defence was heavily focused on the use of economic sanctions, including the ceasing of Russian assets, capital, infrastructure, and private businesses. These measures were simultaneously followed by humanitarian relief and refugee support, as the scale of civilian displacement became increasingly severe. Together, this approach bought the Ukrainian government crucial time to react to Moscow’s military aggression, but ultimately it did little to stop the fighting. Even though Russia was initially heavily affected by the EU economic response, its geographical access to natural resources, as well as its alliance with China and North Korea, has allowed it to continue its campaign into Ukraine.
For most politicians and policymakers in the West, the belief in 2022 was that this would be just another Georgia or Crimea. However, it became quickly evident that for the Russians, the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, was the ultimate red line and it would never be allowed to become a reality. As a result, beginning in late 2022 and into 2023, countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Spain and Germany among others, began ramping up donations in the form of air-defense systems, anti-tank weapons, small arms, and advisors to train and mentor Ukrainian forces on how to operate them. For example, in 2024 the British Royal Air Force (RAF) marked a significant milestone in its support for Ukraine, when it successfully completed the training of two-hundred new Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 fighter jet. These airmen graduated from the RAF’s Elementary Flying Training program and were commemorated in a ceremony by Armed Forces Minister Luke Pollard and Ukrainian Ambassador General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
Furthermore, by the end of 2023 and beginning in 2024, Brussels also initiated the creation of the ‘Ukraine Facility’, a purpose-built €50 billion financial support structure designed to provide Ukraine with the necessary capital to rebuild its economy throughout the next three years of the war. If anything, this initiative by the EU towards a state which isn’t yet a member, shows that the European leadership is willing to bet and sacrifice on a Ukrainian victory, even if it comes at the expense of a longer than anticipated war.
At the same time, the election of President Donald Trump into his second term in office, has created a political turning point for the Ukrainians and the EU. With the prospect of immediate US combat intervention no longer guaranteed in the event that Moscow launches a full-scale invasion against greater Europe, policy makers in Brussels have moved from abstract talk of “strategic autonomy” to concrete, time‑bound measures to raise Europe’s capacity to deter and, if necessary, resist a Russian attack. For example, France and Germany in particular, are accelerating investments in air and missile defense, and combat aircraft; Poland and the Baltic states, which possess the greatest risk of being attacked, are expanding mechanized formations and territorial resilience.
However, even though the political and public’s will for a strong re-militarized Europe is high, Brussels must come to terms that as a union; the EU has never been self-sustaining when it comes to defense. After WW2 and into the beginning of the Cold War, Western Europe has continuously been backed by Washington. Following the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the end of communism in Europe, the US began investing even more resources and troops as is evident with the expansion of NATO in the 1990’s and 2000’s. Europe, as a united continent, has never had to work together to defend itself, without some external partner to rely on. President Trump’s ‘America First’ policies and his rhetoric regarding the potential invasion of Greenland last year, is enough to make Europeans understand that they are on their own.
Additionally, the ongoing war in Iran has become a tremendous embarrassment for the Americans on the global stage, and it is no secret that their weapon stockpiles are running out faster than they can be replenished. Therefore, it is not difficult to ascertain that they are in no position to engage in any new kinetic war currently, and especially not against a country like Russia who is far more capable than Iran. The Europeans know this very well, and they understand that the future of their security and sovereignty lies strictly in their hands.
