As the war in Gaza continues, there are growing fears that another wider war may erupt with devastating consequences for the Middle East region and beyond. Since the inception of the 2023 Israel-Hamas war, the border between Israel and Lebanon has witnessed daily exchanges of fire between the IDF forces and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The intensified shelling of border towns in both Israel and Lebanon has led to the evacuation of thousands of Israeli and Lebanese people. Both sides have for long employed verbal aggression as part of a mutual strategy of deterrence; however, the possibility of a full-scale war has increased after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Israel has been preparing for an intense operation on the border with Lebanon. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has matched Netanyahu’s hostile rhetoric by warning Israel and the rest of the relevant actors in the region that if provoked, Hezbollah would fight a war with no restraint, rules, or ceilings. The United Nations has warned that such a conflict could potentially be apocalyptic. To capture the utter seriousness of this situation, many political pundits have claimed that if there were to be a World War 3, it could start on the Israel-Lebanon border. Hezbollah is much more formidable than Hamas. They are the most heavily armed non-state actors in the world and are fully capable of attaining military success against the IDF forces. Israel is interested in undermining Hezbollah because they believe that Hezbollah is a proxy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, with the same overall objective of eradicating the state of Israel. They consider Hezbollah a threat because there are thousands of missile launchers stationed in Lebanon, ready to be deployed if a war were to ever break out between Iran and Israel. These missiles can reach most of the territories of Israel and can hit their targets with a great degree of precision. According to a US senior administration official, the Iron Dome will be overwhelmed if Hezbollah utilizes the full force of its arsenal. It needs to be stated that making use of Hezbollah is Iran’s best strategy when it comes to deterring Israel. This potential war will take place in Lebanon, and that would give Iran a great trump card because while Iran conducts the war on foreign soil, the Israelis would have to be active near their own borders. Without the advantage that Hezbollah provides, Iran’s ability to dissuade Israel from operating against them and their nuclear facilities would become limited. Protecting this advantage is the reason why Iran would likely get involved directly if Israel were to attack Hezbollah. Ever since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran has used only its proxies to advance and protect its interests in the region; however, considering the fact that Hezbollah is Iran’s greatest revolutionary export, they would be willing to take huge risks protecting it. Iran’s involvement could rapidly turn that conflict into a regional catastrophe because it would be unlikely for the US to tolerate Israel fighting a war with Iran and its proxies on its own. The potential of the US’ involvement would make matters worse because both China and Russia will be encouraged to take part in the conflict because of how important protecting Iran’s influence in the region is for them. Despite all the issues that this possible Israeli offensive could generate, Netanyahu may still decide to give the green light in order to achieve his deep-rooted objectives of undermining Hezbollah and making the US take significant military action against Iran. The current US administration does not want this new war, and they have been working hard to prevent it from happening. Since the October 7 attack, the US has increased its secret backchannel talks with Iran in an effort to control Iran’s response to the Israeli attacks on Gaza with the hope that a larger war in the region can be averted. Furthermore, the US and some of the signatories to the Abraham Accords are trying to convince Netanyahu not to attack Lebanon. The question is: will Netanyahu decide to initiate a full-scale war with Hezbollah despite all the pressure that he is facing?
There are a number of good reasons to think that this full-scale war will not take place in the immediate future. Many of the Israeli officials and generals believe that they should not start a second war while they are occupied with the Gaza conflict. They believe that Israel will not be able to handle two fronts effectively at the same time. There are concerns regarding both military resources and manpower, considering the fact that a full-scale war with Hezbollah would require Israel to use the full extent of its ground forces. These officials currently prefer surgical strikes to a full-scale invasion of Lebanon. They justify this preference by stating that Israel has had great success with its surgical strikes, as they have been able to eliminate a number of key Hezbollah officials over the course of this year. If Netanyahu decides to take a risk and initiate a ground invasion, pushing Hezbollah a few kilometres north and establishing a buffer zone is an objective that is attainable; however, that result will not satisfy Netanyahu. As mentioned, Netanyahu wants a weakened Hezbollah, as well as a scenario in which the US is involved in a direct conflict with Iran. In the context of Lebanon, this can only happen if Israel moves deep into the country. Such a military operation will be extremely difficult and costly for Israel. The fierce fighting and the challenge of maintaining captured territories would generate notable insecurities for the IDF. It also needs to be mentioned that Hezbollah’s army is well-drilled when it comes to urban warfare, and considering the fact that fighting defensively is easier day-to-day than offensive warfare, Israel would have to deal with many casualties. Furthermore, similar to Hamas, Hezbollah will use the civilian population as a shield, and that would result in many civilian casualties. This can further damage Israel’s reputation, considering how much pressure is already on Israel because of the international reactions to the death toll in Gaza.
Another reason why a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is not imminent is because Hezbollah does not want any immediate escalations. There is a good chance that Israel would hesitate to initiate a full-scale war if Hezbollah does not escalate the current situation. Hezbollah knows that a war with Israel, and potentially the US, will significantly weaken its position in Lebanon. Hezbollah has made it apparent that they will stop their current offensive campaign once Israel decides to end the Gaza war. Furthermore, they have generally not targeted civilians directly, as their main targets have been military and civilian infrastructure. This approach is unlike how Hezbollah usually operates, as it has a history of primarily targeting Israeli civilians. It also needs to be stated that Hezbollah does not want this war because of how unpopular it is among the majority of Lebanese people. A large portion of Lebanon’s population blames Hezbollah for the country’s dire economic conditions. Nasrallah knows that if he engages in an extensive war with Israel, the public will partially hold him responsible for a war that is going to make the current crisis in the country even worse. If the current negative posture against Hezbollah aggravates and leads to a major internal strife, Hezbollah could very well lose a large portion of its influence. The Lebanese people also believe that Hezbollah’s rhetoric is extreme enough to bring another costly war to Lebanon that would take the lives of thousands of people. These public sentiments could make Nasrallah avoid beating the drums of war unless Israel leaves him with no choice.
As mentioned, Iran will not let Hezbollah fight Israel on its own hence, they will get involved directly if Israel were to begin a full invasion of Lebanon. Nevertheless, they are secretly hoping for Israel not to attack because they do not want to risk having to face the US army, and they do not want this potential war to add to the domestic turmoil that they are trying to control. Iran is still facing a notable economic and social disorder. The selection of reformist Masoud Pezeshkian by Ali Khamenei could mean that Khamenei is willing to negotiate a second nuclear agreement with the Democrats if they manage to retain office. Being engaged in such a war would eliminate that possibility and make the domestic turmoil in Iran worse. China will also ask Iran not to escalate the situation with Israel because the success of their current economic projects in the Middle East region depends on the stability of that region as a whole. Netanyahu will likely keep the war in Gaza going until after the US election, with the hope that if Trump comes to power, he will be more inclined towards full support of an Israeli ground offensive against Hezbollah. The issue with that approach is that even if Trump becomes president again, that does not guarantee that Netanyahu will receive such support. What is for certain is that Israel will keep hitting targets inside Lebanon, and they may even increase their bombing campaigns in that region. However, it will be difficult for Netanyahu to convince most of his government officials to back his plan of invading Lebanon without guaranteeing that US support will be there. Gathering support for this plan will also be difficult, considering how he has conducted the war in Gaza.
